An asteroid between 130 and 300 feet wide, named 2024 YR4, has a slight possibility of colliding with Earth in 2032. Initially, NASA estimated a 3.1% probability of impact, classifying the asteroid as level 3 on the Torino scale, indicating a “close encounter” threat. The Torino scale communicates the risks cosmic objects pose to Earth, ranging from 0 to 10, with red indicating certain collisions. However, new observations showed lower probabilities, leading to a current estimation of 0.28%.
The Torino scale was proposed by astronomer Richard Binzel nearly three decades ago to increase public awareness of impact risks. Its adoption was a result of the experience with asteroid 1997 XF11, which sparked a doomsday panic due to communication errors. The scale categorizes asteroid threat levels and advises appropriate actions, with unique descriptions for different risk levels.
Understanding the asteroid’s trajectory and size is crucial in accurately predicting its impact risk, which can change over time based on new observations. While initially causing concern, asteroid 2024 YR4’s probability has since decreased, aligning with Binzel’s expectations for an eventual downgrade. Despite the uncertainty surrounding near-Earth asteroids’ impact probabilities, the Torino scale’s role in transparently communicating risks and guiding public awareness has been seen as essential by researchers like Binzel.
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