A recent study presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene suggests that nearly a fifth of the world’s dengue burden is due to climate change. The study attributes rising temperatures to being responsible for nearly a fifth of the existing dengue burden and predicts a 60% increase in dengue incidence by 2050 if emissions continue at the current pace. Specific areas like Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, and Brazil could see spikes of up to 200%.
This year has been particularly bad for dengue fever, with close to 12 million cases recorded in the Americas, almost triple the number from last year. Public health experts have long warned that global warming enables mosquito-borne diseases like dengue to spread to new places as it expands the geographic range where vectors live and thrive. The United States and its territories have seen a significant increase in dengue cases, with Puerto Rico declaring a public health emergency due to over 4,500 locally acquired cases.
The study analyzed temperature records and incidence data on dengue across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas and found that mosquitoes that carry dengue transmit the virus most efficiently when temperatures are between 68 and 82 degrees Fahrenheit. Even if global greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced, the majority of countries analyzed would still see climate-driven increases in dengue. The study emphasizes the need for focus on vaccines, efforts to curb mosquito populations, and preparedness for a rise in dengue cases globally.
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