US officials have announced a planned wind-down of the US military presence in Iraq by the end of 2025, but have left open the possibility of a prolonged presence beyond that. The move is being described as a “transition” rather than a “withdrawal”. Details of what the future of US troops in Iraq will look like remain unclear, with a senior official from President Joe Biden’s administration indicating a two-phase wind-down process. The first phase is expected to end in September 2025, followed by a second phase that could see US troops operating in Iraq in some capacity at least through 2026 to support anti-ISIS efforts. The US-Iraq defence ties are expected to shift towards an expanded bilateral security relationship, but it’s uncertain if this will result in a full withdrawal of US troops.
The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 as part of the “war on terror” and withdrew most troops by 2011, only to redeploy them in 2014 to combat ISIL. The Biden administration declared an end to the US combat mission in Iraq in 2021. Talks about reducing troops further began in January and have included discussions with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and other officials. The continued presence of US troops in Iraq has faced political opposition and attacks from Iran-aligned militias. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the future of US troops in Iraq, efforts are being made to transition towards a new phase in the US-Iraq security relationship.
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